Dutch estimate inflation significantly higher than it actually is

People in the Netherlands estimate inflation to be much higher than it actually is, Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reported based on research among consumers. In recent years, inflation was around 3 percent, while perceived inflation - what people thought inflation was - fluctuated around 8 percent.

Consumers almost always estimate inflation to be higher than it actually is, but since the energy crisis in 2022, that gap has widened significantly. While measured inflation is now moving towards pre-crisis levels, this is not the case for perceived inflation. It is approximately twice as high as it was before 2022.

People are also more likely to expect inflation to rise again. This inflation expectation has been rising again since 2023, after declining for some time following the energy crisis.

This expectation peaked in April, when more than half of consumers expected higher inflation. At the last survey in June, that share had decreased to slightly less than a third of the population.

According to CBS, renewed concerns in recent months are likely due to tensions in the Middle East.