Around 300,000 Dutch households face hit from energy price surge, study finds

Most Dutch households are likely to feel only a limited financial impact from rising energy and fuel prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East, the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis said in a new study. The agency found that the burden falls more heavily on some households, particularly those with low to average incomes that consume relatively large amounts of natural gas and rely more on their cars.

The CPB based its analysis on two possible developments. Under a scenario aligned with current market expectations, disposable incomes would decline by less than 1 percent on average in both 2026 and 2027. If the conflict involving Iran persists and keeps energy prices high for longer, however, the hit to incomes would deepen, reaching roughly 1 percent in 2026 and about 2 percent in 2027.

The CPB said the projected impact is still considerably smaller than during the 2022 energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine. At that time, soaring gas prices led to a median loss in purchasing power of about 4 percent.

The CPB warned that some households could be hit significantly harder than average. Lower- and middle-income families that consume relatively large amounts of gas, drive frequently, or both could see their purchasing power fall by as much as 6 percent. Among higher-income households, the decline could reach up to 4 percent of income.

According to the CPB, the effect of rising gas prices will become more pronounced next year as increasing numbers of households come off fixed energy contracts and are exposed to higher rates ahead of the winter season. The burden is expected to be especially significant for lower-income households, for whom energy bills make up a larger portion of disposable income.

According to the study, households with heat pumps or electric vehicles are better insulated from rising fuel and energy costs. While lower-income households stand to gain the most from such protection, ownership of these technologies is currently concentrated among higher-income households.

NVM Business says commercial buildings with adequate electricity capacity are becoming more valuable as grid congestion worsens. Waiting times for new or upgraded connections have increased in recent years, and availability of power is increasingly seen as a key factor in property attractiveness, sometimes outweighing location, accessibility, or rental price. Buildings without sufficient grid access are becoming more difficult to let or sell.

The number of companies waiting for a grid connection has risen sharply in recent years, from 6,000 to 15,000 in just three years, according to NVM Business. The shortage of electricity capacity is causing firms to delay expansion plans, while municipalities are struggling more with the development of new business parks. As a result, new construction of commercial space is expected to drop to 2.5 million square metres this year,around 2 million square metres less than three years ago, even though demand remains high.

The real estate association says efforts are underway to address the issue. Business parks are increasingly experimenting with shared energy management systems, while investors are also putting more money into commercial property, especially older buildings. By improving sustainability and using energy more efficiently, they hope to boost the long-term value of these assets.