Dutch economy to grow 1.3% in 2026, ING says, boosted by consumers and pensioners
The Dutch economy is expected to grow by 1.3 percent in 2026, fueled largely by spending from workers and pensioners, according to ING Research.
Marieke Blom, ING’s chief economist, said, “2025 is the year of the windfall. U.S. import tariffs have limited impact on the Netherlands, and energy prices are slightly lower than expected. This helped the economy grow a bit this year.”
Despite these gains, Blom cautioned that global tensions and underlying economic erosion may dampen growth next year. Dutch companies remain hesitant to invest due to domestic issues such as high energy costs, limited grid capacity, and environmental restrictions.
Consumers, however, are expected to keep the economy moving. Wage growth is projected to outpace inflation, giving most employed Dutch residents more disposable income. At the same time, households are saving cautiously, balancing spending with prudence.
Pensioners are also expected to benefit in 2026. Over 1.5 million retirees will transition to the new pension system starting January 1, potentially increasing monthly payouts. Blom noted, “Pensioners, including care workers, may see increases up to 7%, and more than one million ABP pensioners, though their fund transitions in 2027, could see nearly 3 percent higher payments.” Even without the pension system windfall, ING anticipates additional consumer spending from retirees.
The outlook for the broader economy is modest. Inflation is expected to ease slightly but remain higher than in most other eurozone countries, at 2.4 percent. Wage growth will slow somewhat as labor market tightness decreases, yet it is projected to remain above inflation. Unemployment may rise slightly, according to ING.
Structural bottlenecks such as limited labor, housing constraints, and nitrogen restrictions are expected to continue curbing growth. A new cabinet could address these challenges, potentially boosting confidence in the short term, though long-term solutions will take time.
