Number of over-85s in Netherlands to more than double, topping 1 million by 2060
The Netherlands is expected to undergo a significant demographic transformation over the coming decades, with the number of people aged 85 and older projected to more than double to at least 1.1 million by 2060, up from approximately 450,000 today, NOS reports.
The projection comes from the newly published Future Exploration of Prosperity and the Living Environment, known in Dutch as the Toekomstverkenning Welvaart en Leefomgeving (WLO), a report by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving, PBL).
The report also projects a steep rise in one-person households—from 3.4 million in 2024 to potentially 5.1 million by 2060. The increase is reportedly largely driven by aging individuals living alone longer and a relatively high proportion of single study and labor migrants.
The study outlines four future scenarios, varying by levels of economic growth and climate transition. PBL Director Marko Hekkert emphasized the report’s role in long-term decision-making: “Governments often find it difficult to look much further ahead than the current cabinet term. However, many decisions made today have long-term effects on the way we live and the prosperity we have.”
The projection of over 1 million 85-plus residents in 2060 reflects what the PBL calls a "double aging" trend—not only will the elderly make up a larger share of the population, but their average age will also increase. This development is expected to result in significantly higher demand for healthcare services.
The number of one-person households is closely tied to economic conditions. “With higher economic growth, people can more easily afford to live alone, and young people are more likely to move out earlier than they would under lower economic growth,” the report states.
Under a high-growth scenario, the Dutch population could rise to 21.9 million by 2060. The PBL expects the largest growth to occur in the Randstad and surrounding provinces, due to the concentration of educational institutions and job opportunities, as well as a younger demographic that contributes to higher birth rates and fewer deaths.
With this projected growth, especially in the Randstad, the need for housing will increase significantly. “Urbanization will become more complex, especially when combined with spatial demands from sustainable energy, the circular economy, and climate adaptation,” the report notes. Migration is expected to rise across all scenarios, regardless of economic conditions.
Key shifts anticipated in all four scenarios include growth in the construction and healthcare sectors, continued adoption of electric vehicles, a slight overall decline in energy consumption, increased electricity use, and reduced dependence on energy imports.
If the climate transition accelerates, the PBL expects risks, costs, and adaptation challenges to rise until 2050 and then level off. A delayed transition, however, would mean those burdens would continue to grow even after 2060.
Among the primary climate-related costs are protective measures against sea-level rise, heatwaves, wildfires, and erratic rainfall.
Outside urban areas, car use is expected to increase, while bus usage will decline in three out of four scenarios. All projections anticipate a rise in traffic deaths and serious injuries. “This is mainly due to a combination of an aging population and an increase in the number of cyclists,” the researchers explain.
Urban areas will also face more crowded streets due to population growth. The report says, “This justifies an expansion of urban traffic policies, such as paid parking, 30 km/h zones, and bicycle networks.”
The 2025 WLO scenarios are designed to be policy-neutral, reflecting plausible developments facing the Netherlands without assuming new Dutch policy interventions. Extreme events or major societal shocks were not considered in this round.
Notably, this edition of the WLO does not include a separate analysis of agriculture, which was included in the 2015 version. “This decision was made due to major uncertainties in agricultural policy and its strong dependence on future political decisions,” the report explains.
The study was a joint effort involving the PBL, the Centraal Planbureau (CPB), Statistics Netherlands (CBS), and the Institute for Road Safety Research (SWOV).
