Netherlands won’t be climate-neutral by 2050 under current plans

The climate plan announced by Dutch Climate Minister Sophie Hermans in April is not enough to make the Netherlands climate-neutral by 2050, according to a position paper from the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL). The paper was released ahead of a parliamentary hearing Thursday.

The PBL criticized several recent policy changes that add confusion. These include canceling the requirement for hybrid heat pumps and ending subsidies for private homeowners with solar panels. The agency said these changes create uncertainty and hurt public trust in the government’s climate efforts.

“The uncertainty is bad for trust,” the PBL wrote. It also said businesses face confusion because of shifting rules. For example, Minister Hermans scrapped a planned tax on plastic and rolled back requirements for hydrogen use.

The agency will provide a full analysis of the climate plan’s effects in the annual Klimaat- en Energieverkenning (Climate and Energy Outlook, KEV) this fall. But it warned that the government must create more consistent policies to meet climate targets.

The latest KEV report from 2023 found the chance of reaching a 55 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 is “very small.” Minister Hermans promised additional policies this spring. Her new package was announced in late April but has not yet been evaluated for its impact.

The PBL’s warning comes just before climate groups present their views in the Tweede Kamer on Thursday. The Nationaal Klimaat Platform, Jonge Klimaatbeweging (Youth Climate Movement) and Nederlandse Vereniging Duurzame Energie (Dutch Sustainable Energy Association) have all expressed doubt that the current policies will meet climate goals.