Climate goals for 2030 still far out of reach: study

The Netherlands will still fail to reach the climate goals set out for them before 2030. The extra measures that Climate Minister Sophie Hermans announced at the end of April will not produce enough results, the researchers at the independent agency Kalavasta have stated. They calculated the effects of the measures on behalf of Greenpeace and Milieudefensie.

Greenhouse emissions have to be 55 percent lower in 2030 than they were in 1990 to reach the target. This is bindingly laid down in both the National Climate Act and in European agreements. In the worst case, the court can rule that these goals have to be reached. Hermans said that she wanted to use the measures to get at least "within the bandwidth" of the target.

According to the calculations, the emissions will not drop enough. Kalavasta’s experts calculated that in the best-case scenario, the emissions will only drop by 54 percent by 2030. In the worst-case scenario, they drop by 47 percent.

Hermans’ measures included subsidies for companies that choose to become more sustainable and to store CO2. Attempts will be made to make electric driving more attractive, partly because the reduction in road tax will be reduced by 5 percentage points less than the government initially planned, although these plans are subject to change due to the collapse of the Coalition on Tuesday.

For companies, the rules are being adjusted so that electric lease cars are cheaper than cars that run on petrol or diesel. At the same time, the current government is lowering energy tax, which does not stimulate energy conservation and sustainability. The money for this comes from the Climate Fund.

Rounded up, the measures result in 4 megatons of reduced CO2 emissions, the researchers stated. This is a lot less than the 10 to 12 megatons that Hermans was trying to achieve. And even that number was not a certainty to reach the goals. The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) had calculated in the past that measures that would result in a reduction of 16 megatons of CO2 emissions would give the ministry a 50 percent chance of reaching the targets.

Greenpeace Nederland Director Marieke Vellekoop concluded that Hermans is implementing “anti-climate policies.” Donald Pols, the Director of Milieudefensie, thinks that the calculations make it “painfully clear” that the current Cabinet’s climate plans have hardly any effect. He said this before the Coalition government’s collapse on Tuesday. “Large polluters have to do even less while regular people foot the bill.”