Up to 640,000 households could face energy poverty this year as gas prices rise: TNO
Global gas prices are rising, putting low-income households more at risk of falling into energy poverty. According to research institute TNO, between 550,000 and 640,000 households in the Netherlands will experience energy poverty in 2025, depending on how energy prices develop and whether the government intervenes. That amounts to one in 14 households.
TNO calculated the effects of three scenarios in which energy prices increase by 5, 12, or 20 percent compared to mid-2024. Global gas prices have been rising since the start of 2024. There are many uncertainties about how they’ll develop this year, but TNO considers it very unlikely that energy prices will drop to the level it was before the energy crisis hit in 2022.
For comparison, energy prices were even higher in 2023. Then, approximately 400,000 Dutch households ended up in energy poverty. According to TNO researcher Peter Mulder, it was government support measures that kept that number so low. Some 885,000 households would have been in financial trouble due to their energy bills in 2023 if the government hadn’t intervened with measures like the energy allowance and a price cap on the energy bills.
“Without these measures, the situation would have been much more serious,” Mulder told NOS. “This support stopped when prices fell, but now that prices are rising, we expect the number of energy-poor households to increase again in 2025.”
According to Mulder, the energy allowance was particularly effective in 2023 and could have a similar dampening effect now. “If an energy allowance is reintroduced, the percentage of energy-poor households would drop to around 4 percent in all scenarios, depending on energy price developments,” he told the broadcaster.
There are also structural solutions that can make a big difference, such as making homes more sustainable. Proper insulation and a heat pump can drastically lower an energy bill. “But that is a political choice that has a big price tag,” Mulder said.
