Netherlands will have 19 million residents in 2037, 20 million by 2058
The population of the Netherlands is projected to continue growing over the coming decades, albeit at a slower pace, according to new forecasts from Statistics Netherlands (CBS). The country is expected to reach 19 million residents in 2037 and 20 million by 2058, driven primarily by migration and increased life expectancy.
CBS’s 2024-2070 population projections show that the current annual growth rate of 105,000 people in 2024 will decline over the next five years to an average of 82,000 per year.
Foreign migration has been the primary driver of population growth in recent years, particularly following the COVID-19 pandemic. Travel restrictions caused migration to drop in 2020, but numbers rebounded in 2021. In 2022 and 2023, migration surged as a result of the war in Ukraine, which brought a significant number of refugees to the Netherlands.
The forecast also highlights the impact of an aging population. By 2040, one-quarter of the Dutch population will be 65 years or older. The combination of an aging society and declining birth rates means that deaths will outnumber births in the coming years, a trend expected to persist from 2040 onward. “The average life expectancy will continue to increase, but this will not entirely offset the effects of an aging population,” CBS reported.
CBS expects migration to decrease slightly in the coming years, with emigration increasing as some immigrants eventually leave the country. However, the projections indicate that immigration will consistently outpace emigration.
The number of annual births peaked in 2021 and has since declined. CBS predicts a modest increase in births over the next several years, as the number of women of childbearing age rises and fertility rates increase among women over 30. “We expect birth rates to rise slightly in the coming decade, but not enough to counteract the natural decrease,” CBS stated.
Between 2028 and 2040, CBS anticipates a brief period where births will outnumber deaths. However, this trend will reverse as mortality rates climb due to the growing proportion of elderly residents.
Since 2020, annual deaths have remained higher than in pre-pandemic years, primarily due to the aging population. Although rising life expectancy will initially stabilize mortality rates, CBS projects an eventual increase starting in the 2030s.
The Netherlands had a population of 17.8 million at the start of 2023. CBS forecasts that the population will reach 18 million by 2025 and cross the 19 million mark in 2037. By 2070, the Dutch population is expected to grow to approximately 20.6 million.
