CDA rises in polls as coalition loses majority

In the latest Peilingwijzer, a weighted average of seat projections from Ipsos, I&O Research, and Verian/EenVandaag, the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) continues its upward trajectory. The party, which currently holds five seats in the House of Representatives, is now polling between 11 and 15 seats. This marks significant progress for the party in recent months.

The Party for Freedom (PVV) remains the largest party with 36 to 42 seats, compared to its current 37 seats in the House. However, it has seen a slight decline compared to earlier this year.

The New Social Contract (NSC), led by Pieter Omtzigt, has suffered a steep drop. The party, which holds 20 seats, is now polling between zero and three seats, reflecting a major setback since the previous Peilingwijzer three months ago.

Tom Louwerse, the political scientist behind the Peilingwijzer, noted the precarious position of NSC. “These are day-to-day figures, and even D66 has been at zero seats in the past before rebounding. However, Omtzigt’s party is currently very low and, as a newcomer, particularly vulnerable. NSC has yet to build a loyal voter base, and its supporters are deeply dissatisfied with the current government,” Louwerse said.

The decline of NSC has broader implications for the coalition government. With the VVD (24 seats) polling between 21 and 25 seats and the BBB (7 seats) at 5 to 7 seats, the coalition—comprising PVV, VVD, BBB, and NSC—would no longer hold a majority in the House of Representatives.

Research from Ipsos and I&O shows that voter satisfaction with the coalition government, known as the Schoof cabinet, has plummeted. Only 19 percent of voters expressed satisfaction in recent weeks. Analysts Peter Kanne and Asher van der Schelde noted that this level of dissatisfaction places the Schoof cabinet on par with the unpopularity of the Rutte IV cabinet at its lowest point, despite being in office for less than six months.

Despite the coalition’s declining popularity, Ipsos and I&O found that three of the four coalition parties have maintained relatively stable polling numbers. This resilience is attributed to the lack of viable alternatives perceived by their voter base.

“Their voters are satisfied with the cabinet’s objectives and appreciate having a strong right-wing coalition in power,” the researchers stated. However, right-wing voters blame NSC for the coalition’s limited achievements, viewing it as an obstructive force.

The CDA’s recent gains have primarily come at the expense of NSC and, to a lesser extent, the VVD, according to the research.

The left-wing opposition has seen minimal benefits from dissatisfaction with the government. While D66, currently holding nine seats, is polling between 11 and 14, GroenLinks-PvdA remains stagnant with 23 to 27 seats, compared to its current 25 seats.

The Socialist Party (SP), under new leader Jimmy Dijk, shows modest growth, polling between six and eight seats from its current five. Other smaller parties have seen limited movement. The Party for the Animals (PvdD), with three seats, is polling at 5 to 8. Denk remains at 2 to 4 seats, and Volt at 2 to 4.

Forum for Democracy (2 to 4 seats), the Christian Union (3 to 4 seats), the Reformed Political Party (SGP) at 2 to 4, and JA21 (0 to 2) have shown little to no changes in their polling numbers.