Study claims that high home prices are connected to declining birth rates

The declining birth rate since 2010 seems to be connected to the simultaneous rise in home prices. The birth rate has declined the most in the regions where home prices have risen the most. This is shown in a study by the National Demographic Research Institute (Nidi), which released the results of this study on Thursday.

The Netherlands' birth rate has declined sharply in the last 15 years. The number of children per woman decreased from 1,80 in 2010 to 1,49 in 2022. Provisional figures for 2023 show that the numbers dropped further to 1,43 children per woman. This is the lowest birth rate since the Second World War, demographer Daniël van Wijk wrote in the study.

In the region of Groot-Amsterdam, where the homes are the most expensive, the trend was most noticeable. Between 2010 and 2022, the number of children per woman dropped from 1,64 to 1,23 or 0,4 per woman.

Zuid-Limburg and Oost-Groningen are two areas where home prices have risen much less. The birthrate only dropped by 0.2 children per woman in these areas (from 1,53 to 1,34).

According to the study and a report from Volkskrant, these results show a connection between rising home prices and dropping birth rates.

For all 40 regions studied, an increase in house prices of 100,000 euros appears to be associated with a decrease in the number of children per woman, which is between 0,03 and 0,06.