Netherlands will miss important nitrogen target next year

The Netherlands will not achieve a crucial self-imposed nitrogen target for 2025 and will thus violate the 2021 “nitrogen law,” NRC reports based on an analysis by the RIVM. That will make the Dutch State more vulnerable to court-imposed measures to cut nitrogen emissions, such as reducing the livestock population.

The Rutte III Cabinet implemented the Nitrogen Reduction and Nature Improvement Act in 2021 in an attempt to tackle the nitrogen crisis - to reduce nitrogen emissions enough that Dutch nature no longer deteriorates. From next year, according to the law, the nitrogen precipitation in 40 percent of Dutch vulnerable nature reserves must be below the level that causes harm. Prime Minister Mark Rutte (VVD) and Nitrogen Minister Christianne van der Wal repeatedly called that the law's primary goal.

However, according to NRC, an RIVM analysis from the end of last year and recent answers to parliamentary questions from Van der Wal show that this goal is unattainable because too few measures have been implemented. In 2021, the nitrogen precipitation level was below the harmful level in 28 percent of vulnerable Dutch nature reserves. With the policy that applied until May 2022, that will reach 30 percent in 2030 - far below the 40 percent target for 2025.

Five years into the nitrogen crisis, there are hardly any concrete measures in agriculture to reduce emissions, experts told NRC. The government has bought out only 32 farmers. The target is about 600.

Because these goals are established in law, the nitrogen policy is vulnerable to lawsuits, Jan-Willem Erisman, a professor of environment and sustainability at the University of Leiden, told NRC. He referred to the Urgenda case, in which the courts forced the government to do more against climate change. He expects similar wins for environmental organizations based on the nitrogen law.

Greenpeace is already suing the Dutch government for not achieving the nitrogen goals, among other things. Environmental organization Mobilization for the Environment (MOB), which has repeatedly won nitrogen lawsuits against various levels of government, is also considering legal action, director Johan Vollenbroek told NRC.

The Cabinet could prevent court-imposed measures by quickly taking measures itself to drastically reduce nitrogen emissions. Minister Van der Wal acknowledged that in recent answers to parliamentary questions. At the same time, she explicitly referred to the Cabinet formation. “Given the current political situation, I believe it is appropriate to leave the choice of these measures to the formation process.”

But given that the four parties currently in talks to form the next Dutch government - PVV, VVD, NSC, and BBB - are all largely against tougher nitrogen measures, it seems unlikely that anything will happen quickly.