Pressure on asylum reception remains high in 2024, additional places needed

The reception of asylum seekers will remain under pressure in 2024, as there will be a high influx and too little outflow of status holders to regular housing. As a result, several tens of thousands of additional shelter places may be needed next year, according to the six-monthly Multi-Year Production Forecast (MPP) that outgoing State Secretary Christophe van der Maat (Asylum) has sent to the Tweede Kamer.

According to the forecasts, the number of reception places will increase to 69,900 on January 1, 2024. Based on the current influx, the flow to housing, and the outflow of rejected asylum seekers, 96,000 reception places may be needed on January 1, 2025. This number includes the fact that 21,000 status holders in asylum reception will not be able to move on to regular or temporary housing elsewhere next year. This is mainly due to a shortage of housing.

It is estimated that between 49,000 and 76,000 asylum seekers will come to the Netherlands next year, the MPP states. About 45,000 are expected this year, the Ministry of Justice and Security claims. At the beginning of November, the counter stood at 41,000 asylum applications, almost the same as the same period in 2022. Earlier this year, the ministry took into account numbers between 45,000 and almost 70,000 asylum applications.

Despite the lower number, there is no "relief" for Van der Maat, who replaces the sick Eric van der Burg. "I don't have the feeling that everything will turn out fine. Actually, the opposite," he says after the Cabinet meeting. Like his fellow party member, Van der Maat is also constantly calling municipalities to arrange more reception capacity.

A major obstacle is that many asylum seekers who have a residence permit, the so-called status holders, do not move on to municipalities quickly enough. The task for municipalities to house asylum seekers was reduced in the last half of this year. This is because fewer residence permits have been issued than expected. The ministry thinks that these will be postponed to next year so that more houses will still be needed. For the first half of 2024, the target for municipalities is to allocate 18,750 homes to status holders.

The controversial dispersal law, which is now before the Senate, does not offer a solution for now. Van der Maat points out that if that law is passed, the effects will not be visible until 2025.

The Dutch refugee council Vluchtelingenwerk reports that the current situation clearly shows the need for the dispersal law. "Without structural measures, the distressing situation in which asylum seekers and refugees find themselves will continue. We call to get out of the crisis atmosphere now. This requires action by the (outgoing) Cabinet, the Senate, and municipalities. That means acutely more and sufficient reception places, also for unaccompanied minor asylum seekers (AMV’s)."