Dutch housing shortage nears 400,000 homes; Problem will continue to worsen: research

The housing shortage in the Netherlands increased sharply in the past year, rising from 315,000 in 2022 to 390,000 now. And the shortage will continue to grow until at least 2028, according to research agency ABF Research’s annual forecast for the Ministry of Home Affairs.

The researchers looked at the population growth and expected housing construction. According to ABF Research, the housing shortage now amounts to 4.8 percent of the housing stock, compared to 3.9 percent last year. Normal tension in the housing market is 2 percent. To achieve that, the Netherlands would have to immediately add 223,000 homes to its housing stock.

The sharp increase in the housing shortage is primarily due to the number of households in the country rising faster than expected. According to ABF, that is largely due to the arrival of Ukrainian refugees. Fewer places in nursing homes also mean that senior citizens live in their homes longer, decreasing the available supply.

Another factor is that housing construction is slowing down. Rising mortgage interest rates put homes out of reach for buyers more often, resulting in reluctance among project developers to build.

The researchers expect that outgoing Housing Minister Hugo de Jonge’s goal to build 900,000 homes by 2030 will not be achieved. As things stand now, 834,000 homes will be built by that year. But even if the goal is reached, the target number isn’t enough to reduce the housing shortage. For that, the Netherlands needs to build 981,000 new homes by 2030, the researchers said.

According to De Jonge, this forecast again shows that we cannot afford to stand still when it comes to housing construction. "With the rise in interest rates in the past year, the headwind - which was already strong in many areas - has increased. And the new figures show that the task - which was already considerable - is even greater," he said.

"It underlines the need to ensure that the number of new homes rises faster than the number of new people. We will have to make up for the housing shortage. And so we have to build more affordable homes with more speed and more direction," De Jonge said.

In previous forecasts, ABF Research expected the housing shortage to start easing in 2026. Now they think that won’t happen until 2028. By 2038, the shortage should decrease to 205,000 homes.

However, the research agency stressed that population trends - and therefore the demand for homes - are difficult to predict accurately. These figures may change.