Netherlands needs to build 1.2 million homes by 2040, including 700,000 affordable ones

The Netherlands needs to build 1.2 million homes between 2025 and 2039, including around 700,000 that fall into the “affordable” category, ABF Research concluded in a study on the expected development of the housing market. That means building around 70,000 homes a year, according to the research commissioned by the Ministry of Housing, ANP reported.

The Dutch government’s current target is building 100,000 homes a year, though it has never gotten close to achieving it. Creating 70,000 homes per year is much more achievable. Last year, the Dutch housing stock grew by 82,000 homes.

Around 700,000 of the new homes created in the coming 15 years need to fall in the affordable category, according to ABF Research. These are social housing, mid-market rentals, and owner-occupied homes priced under €390,000.

Depending on how the economy and incomes develop in the coming years, 55 to 63 percent of new construction should be affordable homes, including 22 to 33 percent social housing, the researchers concluded. That is 670,000 to 750,000 new affordable homes, including 280,000 to 400,000 social housing units.

The Ministry aims for two-thirds of new homes to be affordable, including 30 percent in the social housing sector.

The target for building 100,000 new homes, two-thirds of which are in the affordable housing category, was first included in the Rutte IV coalition agreement, set by a CDA Minister under a VVD Prime Minister. The Schoof I Cabinet held onto the target.

During this election campaign, many political parties expressed the desire to build 100,000 per year, but few were willing to commit to that promise. The VVD and CDA both acknowledged that the target may be impossible to achieve.

Trust in Dutch politics is currently very low, and various advisory institutions have urged political parties not to make promises they can’t keep.