Dutch investors' confidence plummeting over Iran war, Box 3 tax
Private investors in the Netherlands are currently either taking as few risks as possible or postponing investments on the stock market. The war in the Middle East and uncertainty around what the government wants to do with the Box 3 tax, which taxes assets and investments, has sent investor confidence plummeting, NOS reports based on ING’s investment barometer.
According to the barometer, investor confidence fell by 41 points to 80 in March. That is the lowest level in a year. The last time investor confidence was this low was when U.S. president Donald Trump started a global trade war in April 2025. A reading of 100 indicates neutral sentiment. Below that, investors are negative.
A fifth of surveyed investors said that they are taking as little risk as possible on the stock market. “Or they are postponing investment decisions,” said Bob Homan, head of ING’s investment office. "People are waiting to invest in order to save. For the time being, the tax on savings is lower than on investments.” Major banks are currently offering savers an interest rate of around 1.25 percent - an attractive offer for risk-averse investors.
The year started with optimism in the stock market. But the American and Israeli attacks on Iran changed that drastically. “That pushed oil prices and interest rates up and stock markets down,” Homan explained. “Only the shares of oil companies have risen, but otherwise, there are no exceptions. The price of bonds, and even gold and silver, is also falling sharply.”
The ongoing debate about the Box 3 tax is also creating additional unrest among investors, Homan said. “A fifth of investors are postponing financial plans or investing less because it is unclear how they will be taxed on this.”
The new system for wealth and asset tax was set to take effect in 2028 after years of debate and work. Parliament had already approved it. But last month, Finance Minister Eelco Heinen suddenly pulled the bill, saying he wants to amend it again.
