Dutch home prices set to rise 3.1%, less than 8.6% increase last year
Dutch home prices are expected to rise by an average of 3.1 percent this year, significantly lower than last year’s 8.6 percent increase, according to RaboResearch’s quarterly housing market report released Thursday.
Economists attribute the slower growth to a temporary increase in housing supply, driven largely by the sale of former rental properties and a brief boost in new construction. “Investors are still selling their homes,” said Stefan Groot, an economist at RaboResearch. “If we hadn’t had that, prices would have risen even more.”
In 2025, investors sold 36,000 homes to owner-occupiers, accounting for more than 15 percent of all transactions, easing market tightness temporarily. Much of this added supply is concentrated in major cities, where many ex-rental units are located. Groot noted, “Young homebuyers who couldn’t get a house last year can now find one—at the expense of renters, because the new supply comes from that segment.”
Despite the extra supply, the market remains tight. Sales times have only slightly increased, and an estimated 410,000 homes are still lacking this year, roughly 4.8 percent of the total housing stock. “That home prices continue to rise despite more supply shows how severe structural scarcity is,” Groot said.
The economist added that geopolitical factors have had surprisingly little effect on the housing market. “You can offset different effects against each other. The economy is slightly weaker, capital market rates have risen somewhat (which influences mortgage rates), but not extremely. On the other hand, inflation will boost wage growth, which suggests housing prices could rise faster,” he said.
Construction has reached record levels, and part of this year’s new builds will still be delivered, contributing further to supply. According to RaboResearch, the moderation in price growth is expected to continue this year, with projections indicating a rebound to 4.1 percent in 2027 if supply tightens again.
