VAT hike & tighter budgets: Lowest tourism growth since 2012 expected this year

This year, the tourism and congresses agency NBTC expects overnight tourism in the Netherlands to grow by 0.5 percent, the lowest growth since 2012, excluding 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic brought travel to a halt. The expected slowdown is partly due to the VAT increase on accommodation that took effect on January 1, and partly due to the NBTC expecting travelers to keep tighter strings on their wallets.

The NBTC expects a total of around 53 million overnight guests in Dutch accommodations this year. “Domestic overnight tourism is particularly under pressure, while international overnight tourism is showing limited growth,” the national agency said.

After several years of strong growth, overnight stays by Dutch vacationers in their own country are expected to shrink by 1 percent in 2026, bringing the total number of Dutch overnight guests to 30 million. This growth already slowed down significantly in 2025.

“The VAT increase on accommodation could lead to Dutch people increasingly choosing cheaper alternatives across the border, such as Germany and Belgium,” the NBTC said. “This price sensitivity was already evident in 2025: budget-friendly camping holidays saw the fastest growth then. This austerity-driven trend could increase further in 2026.”

The growth in international tourists is expected to continue, but significantly less than in recent years. NBTC expects approximately 23 million international guests to spend the night in Dutch accommodations, an increase of 2.4 percent compared to 2025. Last year, this number grew by 5.1 percent.

“The slowing growth is related to concerns about rising costs, particularly in the key European source markets,” NBTC said. “European travelers are more price-conscious and are more likely to adjust their travel behavior when accommodation prices rise.”