Netherlands at high risk of major power outages after 2030
The Netherlands faces a high risk of major power outages after 2030 if energy companies are not funded to keep gas-fired power plants operational, according to a report by international consultancy Compass Lexecon for Energie Nederland.
For the next five years, electricity supply is expected to remain sufficient during periods without sun or wind. But after that, the situation could deteriorate quickly.
The country’s last three coal-fired power plants are scheduled to close by 2029, while gas plants are becoming less profitable due to growing wind and solar capacity. Meanwhile, electricity demand is rising with more heat pumps and electric vehicles.
Compass Lexecon warns that by 2033, the Netherlands could experience 15 to 18 hours of power shortages annually—four times the maximum acceptable level of four hours—causing uncontrolled outages and extremely high electricity prices. Currently, supply reliability is 99.99 percent.
Cora van Nieuwenhuizen, chair of Energie Nederland, called the report a wake-up call. “With the rapid growth of wind and solar power, gas plants are idle more often. Operators are delaying major maintenance because it’s no longer profitable,” she told AD.
Compass Lexecon said that market-wide capacity mechanism could prevent this scenario by providing payments to operators to run plants when renewable energy is insufficient and encouraging investment in power plants or battery storage.
Societal benefits are estimated at 2.5 to 3 billion euros per year through lower prices and reduced outage risks. The researchers said the cost of acting early is far lower than acting too late.
