Trump's tariffs will slow Dutch economic growth, increase uncertainty: ING economist

The 30 percent tariff that United States president Donald Trump plans to impose on goods from the European Union is expected to slow Dutch economic growth, ING economist Bert Colijn told ANP. Besides the direct effect on the economy, the uncertainty associated with the tariffs could particularly impact the Netherlands.

The tariff announced by Trump on Saturday is higher than the 20 percent tariff announced in April, which was later reduced to a “base rate” of 10 percent. According to Colijn, the difference from 10 to 30 percent could have an additional negative impact of 0.2 percent on the Dutch economy. “That’s not a huge amount,” the economist said.

Colijn added that the tariff also creates additional uncertainty for Dutch companies. This could lead to postponed investments.

“The maddening thing for Dutch businesses is that this makes it very difficult to make decisions about what kind of business to do with the United States,” the economist explained. He stressed that this situation has been going on for months. “And we don’t know yet for sure what will happen on August 1.”

The EU and the US have been trying to reach a trade agreement for some time, but these negotiations have been difficult. In May, Trump threatened a 50 percent tariff on the bloc. The European Commission has always stressed its desire to reach a deal with the US. According to Colijn, the consequences of the import duties for the Netherlands therefore depend on how the trade relationship between the two parties develops. “It remains difficult to estimate.”

The economist also noted that there is a high probability that the EU will take countermeasures. This, he said, could have consequences for Dutch consumers, including making American products more expensive.