Average Dutch 65-year-old can look forward to another 21 years of life

People who turn 65 in 2030 will have an average of 20.96 years left to live, according to CBS. That is a fraction lower than previously expected. The estimate by the statistics agency CBS is used to determine the age at which people receive the AOW.

Life expectancy in 2030 falls slightly in the latest forecast compared to the previous forecast, in which it was set at exactly 21 years. The fact that life expectancy is slightly lower is partly due to Covid-19. Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, more people have died than expected before the pandemic started. Therefore, the increase in mortality is sustainably reducing life expectancy. From 2022, life expectancy is expected to recover, but at a slower rate than previously expected. The forecast has therefore been revised downwards.

The life expectancy of 65-year-olds has risen from 14.3 years in 1950 to 20.1 years in 2019, CBS reports. The increase in life expectancy is not the same every year. In the Netherlands, as in other Western European countries, life expectancy rose more slowly between 2012 and 2018.

Due to the higher mortality rate during the coronavirus pandemic, the life expectancy of 65-year-olds fell to 19.5 years in 2020 and 2021. In 2022, life expectancy rose again to 19.7 years, and in 2023 to 19.9 years. In the future, life expectancy is expected to rise further to 20.96 years in 2030.

According to CBS, the life expectancy of women is generally higher than that of men. In 2023, the difference at the age of 65 is 2.2 years.

Around 170 thousand people have died every year since 2020. That is almost 20 thousand more per year than in the years before the coronavirus pandemic. More people have also died in 2024 than in the same period of 2023.

Although life expectancy has been rising again since 2022 and almost reached pre-coronavirus pandemic levels again in 2023, this recovery has been slower than expected. In the meantime, the emergency is over, but Covid-19 is still present. It is therefore assumed that life expectancy will not fully recover to the level expected before the coronavirus pandemic.