Voters satisfied with coalition agreement, doubt that new Cabinet can keep its promises

Dutch voters are relatively satisfied with the coalition agreement concluded between the PVV, VVD, NSC, and BBB last week. Half of voters are happy with it, more than the 34 percent who felt confident in the Rutte IV Cabinet agreement in January 2022, NOS reports based on a survey by Ipsos I&O among 2,141 voters. However, there are widespread concerns among voters about whether the new coalition can deliver on its promises.

PVV (92 percent) and BBB (85 percent) voters are particularly happy with the right-wing parties’ “main lines agreement.” The agreement also has the support of three-quarters of NSC and VVD voters. These voters think it is time for change and hope that the new government will breathe fresh air into Dutch politics. They also think the right-wing coalition does justice to the election results.

Forty percent of voters are dissatisfied with the coalition agreement. That is particularly true among GroenLinks-PvdA voters (97 percent), closely followed by Volt and D66 voters. A large majority of ChrisetnUnie, PvdD, SP, and CDA voters are also displeased.

The researchers noted that when they did this survey two years ago with the last Rutte Cabinet, all the Ministers and State Secretaries had already been appointed. That’s not the case for the new right-wing government – the new Prime Minister isn’t even known yet.

Strikingly, even voters who are satisfied with the new coalition have doubts about the new government’s decisiveness and ability to deliver on its promises. Only 35 percent have that confidence in the next Cabinet. “You hear a lot: first see, then believe,” Ipsos I&O researcher Asher van Schelde said. Voters worry that the Cabinet will collapse quickly due to the differences between the parties. “Then they refer to the relationship between the PVV and NSC, and more specifically, between the leaders Geert Wilders and Pieter Omtzigt.”

Most of the confidence in the new coalition agreement comes from its “strictest asylum policy yet.” A substantial group of voters (47 percent) think that the new Cabinet could be effective in addressing this problem. They’re less confident about the other, larger political problems of our time, especially the climate crisis. Only 11 percent of voters think this Cabinet will make any difference here at all.

When it comes to candidates for Prime Minister, Ronald Plasterk, who announced last week that he was unavailable for the job due to questions about his integrity, still has the most confidence among voters (32 percent). Other potential candidates have significantly less support: Mona Keijzer (BBB, 18 percent), Fred Teeven (VVD, 12 percent), and Marco Pastors (Ja21, 5 percent). Pastors' low score may be due to the fact that 57 percent of voters didn’t know who he was.