Dutch online shopping to rise even more in 2026, ABN AMRO forecasts

Dutch consumers are expected to shop online even more in 2026, with ABN AMRO forecasting a 6 percent increase in web-based purchases. Online sales grew 6.6 percent in 2025 and 9.6 percent in 2024.

Retail economist Gerarda Westerhuis said shopping has become a “hybrid journey,” with the boundary between online and physical stores increasingly blurred. “Consumers move easily between online and in-store, even within the same purchase. They increasingly start digitally, comparing prices on their phones and seeking inspiration via social media,” she explained.

Westerhuis noted that online shopping is especially important for electronics and fashion, while physical stores remain relevant for products people want to touch or test first.

Over the past ten years, retailers in telecom, computers and software, footwear, and consumer electronics have significantly reduced their store count, while online sales have surged.

ABN AMRO forecasts that overall retail spending will increase by around 1 percent in 2026, supported by higher wages and slower inflation. However, consumers are likely to remain cautious when making large purchases due to ongoing geopolitical tensions. Retail sales rose 1.1 percent in 2025.

Westerhuis said retailers still face persistent challenges, including staff shortages, difficulties finding successors, and rising costs. At the same time, competition is intensifying as major online platforms like Amazon and low-cost retailers such as Shein and Temu continue to expand.

Supermarkets are expected to see a small 0.5 percent increase in sales after a 0.6 percent drop last year. Price-conscious and promotion-driven shopping continues to heighten competition between traditional supermarkets and discount chains.

Demand for do-it-yourself products is expected to grow 3 percent in 2026. Many consumers prefer to handle home maintenance and sustainability projects themselves because skilled labor is scarce and expensive. Interest in ready-made kits, instructional videos, and assembly services is also increasing.