Highly educated Dutch women misjudge chances of living to 90
Many Dutch adults underestimate how long they are likely to live, with highly educated women showing the largest gap, according to research by Tilburg University professor Harry van Dalen and Groningen University professor Kène Henkens, obtained by Trouw.
Current statistics from Statistics Netherlands (CBS) indicate that roughly one in three women and one in four men under 60 today are expected to reach age 90 or older. However, the study also found that lower-educated adults of both genders tend to live shorter lives on average than higher-educated peers.
These figures assume that current mortality rates remain stable, but experts predict life expectancy will continue to rise due to healthier lifestyles, improved working conditions, and better medical care.
The projections suggest that nearly three-quarters of 18-year-old girls today could live to 90, compared with 60 percent of 18-year-old boys—more than double what current statistics alone would imply. Even among today’s 45-year-olds, predicted lifespans are substantially higher than historical mortality data suggest.
Despite these trends, most Dutch adults misjudge their life expectancy. The study found that women under 45 underestimate their chance of reaching 90 by nearly 35 percentage points. Highly educated women aged 45 to 60 underestimate their lifespan by over 25 points. Men also underestimate their longevity, though less drastically.
Experts warn that underestimating lifespan carries financial risks. Individuals who save too little for retirement or spend their pension funds too quickly may face economic hardship in later life. This is particularly relevant for adults aged 45 to 66, who are actively making pension decisions, as well as for self-employed workers who already contribute insufficiently to retirement savings.
