Netherlands faces second aging wave as birth rates fall; Population could drop below 10M
The Netherlands is at risk of a second wave of population aging that could have severe economic and social consequences. According to De Telegraaf, projections suggest the country’s population may fall below 10 million by the end of the century if current birth rates continue to decline.
Economic and demographic experts warn that falling fertility rates combined with an aging population will increase pressure on pensions, healthcare, and social services. “The declining birth rate and an additional aging burden create problems for the AOW and especially elderly care,” Casper van Ewijk, professor of economics and director of the pension think tank Netspar, told De Telegraaf.
The Netherlands’ Central Planning Bureau (CPB) has calculated that state debt will exceed 100 percent of GDP over the long term, without factoring in potential extra costs from demographic decline.
Demographic scenarios from Nidi, the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, and Netspar indicate long-term financial challenges. The Netherlands’ population currently stands at 18.1 million, a growth largely driven by immigration, according to CBS statistics.
The national fertility rate has steadily fallen over the past fifteen years. In 2024, Dutch women averaged 1.4 children each, down from 1.6–1.8 in the late 1970s. One in five women now remain childless.
Van Ewijk said the potential second aging wave would reduce the ratio of workers to retirees from three per older person to roughly 2.5, further straining pensions and healthcare.
Experts warn that a shrinking population could have broad effects: fewer schools, smaller workforce inflows, declining sports clubs, and challenges recruiting military personnel.
Plans to expand the military to 100,000 soldiers, with a target of 122,000 in the D66-CDA coalition agreement, could be unattainable under demographic decline. Even with a crisis response target of 200,000, social security professor of SEO Economic Research Daniël van Vuuren told De Telegraaf, “Where do you get those people from? They would have to be plucked from other sectors.”
Experts urge policymakers to plan for flexibility in housing and infrastructure. “On the long term, the demand for schools will decrease as fewer children are born. If a school building is constructed, consider how it could later be converted into apartments for people over 70,” Van Vuuren said.
