Wet and windy conditions forecast for Election Day, but will rain affect the outcome?

Election Day is expected to be rainy and windy in parts of the country, with Dutch citizens visiting polling places in the Netherlands on Wednesday to select the 150 politicians who will sit in the Tweede Kamer, the lower house of Parliament. Several scientific studies indicate the adverse weather has the potential to impact the results of the election, but it is impossible to predict which parties might benefit.

According to an analysis of thirteen Dutch elections, total turnout is approximately 1 percent lower after 25 millimeters of rain. This effect can affect close elections, and the uphill battle smaller parties face, since they need every vote possible to secure a seat in the Tweede Kamer.

A Nijmegen study suggests that the center-right Christian party, CDA, has historically benefited from rain on election day. It may also be the case that religious voters have a greater sense of "civic duty," Nijmegen scientists wrote in 2011. Since then, not only has politics changed, but so has the CDA's base. So the question remains whether the pattern will hold.

That study also showed that precipitation has cost the left-wing parties SP and PvdA some votes in the past. The far-right PVV was not included in that particular analysis.

Several international studies have concluded that rain benefits conservative parties, and studies from various countries show that fewer voters go to the polls when it rains. But there is no clear answer to the question of which voters are likely to stay home.

One analysis of Danish elections shows young voters are more influenced by the weather. In the Netherlands, this would mean that a party like Volt, with a relatively young base, could be more affected by a soggy Election Day.

In any case, the northern part of the country will likely see rain in the morning, while the west can expect showers in the afternoon. Voters in the eastern regions, however, will likely stay dry throughout the day on Wednesday, according to WeerOnline.

The weather website advised voters to check updates before heading out the door on Tuesday. Winds from the south will be strong near the coast, but more moderate inland, with strong gusts of wind expected with the heavier periods of rain showers. Lakefront winds along the IJsselmeer are expected to range up to 50 kilometers per hour, with stronger winds along the Wadden Islands and the Wadden Sea of up to 60 km/h, or so.

In the western coastal region and around the IJsselmeer, the combination of rain and wind means voters should consider planning a little extra time if they are heading to the polls in that region. As the winds pick up over the course of the day, those forced to wait outside will be a bit uncomfortable, especially around open-air polling stations, and bicycle parking sections along coastal areas.

Meanwhile, in the east and southeast the relative calm and even periods of sunshine might help boost turnout and reduce logistical hiccups until the afternoon. The southeast of the country can expect plenty of sunshine throughout the day, but the weather will turn cloudy with significant rainfall during the evening hours.

Although it will be a wet day, temperatures are forecast to remain mild. Most areas will reach around 12 degrees Celsius by late morning, possibly climbing a bit higher in the afternoon. Conditions are forecast to worsen later in the evening nationwide, with lower temperatures, steady rain, and stronger winds making for a damp end to Election Day.