Dutch meteorological office also predicts early Gulf Stream collapse

The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) has joined Dutch climate researchers in warning that the Gulf Stream, a system of ocean currents crucial to global climate, could reach a tipping point and collapse much earlier than previously thought. The collapse would disrupt heat transport to the North Atlantic, producing hotter, drier summers and extremely cold winters in northwest Europe.

Previously, scientists believed the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), of which the Gulf Stream is a key component, would not fully weaken until after 2100.

KNMI’s latest research shows that in many climate models, the current already loses strength this century and could eventually stop. The risk is highest if CO2 emissions continue rising, but even with strong reductions in line with the Paris Agreement, the chance of collapse remains around 25 percent.

KNMI researcher Sybren Drijfhout said, “Recent observations in the regions where water sinks deep in the North Atlantic already show a decline over the past five to ten years. It may be a temporary dip, but it comes in line with model predictions.”

The AMOC transports warm, salty surface water from the tropics northward. In winter, this water cools near Greenland, sinks, and returns southward at depth. This “ocean conveyor belt” moderates Europe’s climate and affects global weather patterns.

Rising temperatures and increased rainfall reduce surface salinity in the North Atlantic, making water lighter and less likely to sink. “Once in motion, this process reinforces itself: the weaker the AMOC, the less salty water is transported north, the lighter the surface water, the less it sinks, and the weaker the AMOC becomes,” the study notes.

The Dutch study shows vertical water mixing in the North Atlantic could stop by mid-century — the tipping point that triggers full collapse. Once past this point, heat transport by the AMOC would drop dramatically, potentially to less than 20 percent of current levels, and in some models nearly to zero. Complete collapse could take 50 to 100 years.

Earlier research by Utrecht University similarly concluded that the Gulf Stream could reach a tipping point around 2060, much sooner than previously expected. René van Westen of Utrecht University told NOS, “What this study makes concrete is that we have a year for the start of the Gulf Stream collapse, around 2060. That is alarmingly closer than previously thought, possibly even within our lifetime.”

Van Westen emphasized that collapse is not inevitable. “Our study also shows that if you limit warming, the risk of the Gulf Stream collapsing becomes increasingly smaller. And you can even prevent it entirely, but then action must be taken.”