VVD drops 8 seats in latest poll as CDA solidifies top 3 spot; NSC down to 0

Turmoil in the Cabinet and persistent criticism of party leader Dilan Yeşilgöz have the VVD plummeting in the polls. The liberal party dropped from 23 to 15 seats. PVV is in the lead with 33 seats, followed by GroenLinks-PvdA with 26 seats. The CDA is solidly in third place with 22 seats, and the NSC has lost all hope, dropping to zero, according to EenVandaag’s latest poll among a representative group of 1,574 voters.

With 15 seats, the VVD is at its lowest point in years. The liberals fell below the 20-seat threshold at the end of 2023, amid uncertainty surrounding working with the PVV and the party's backtracking on its own asylum distribution law. But during the Schoof Cabinet’s term, the trend began to improve.

According to EenVandaag, Yeşilgöz’s row with singer Douwe Bob last month was a turning point for many voters. The VVD lawyer has since apologized, but it is too little too late for many now-former VVD voters. Some also struggle with the VVD’s stance in the Gaza debate, and potential collaboration with the PVV continues to divide. Some believe that the VVD should never have partnered with Geert Wilders and his far-right party in the Schoof I Cabinet, and others are upset that the VVD has ruled out working with the party in the next Cabinet.

In the previous EenVandaag poll on July 29, the PVV and GroenLinks-PvdA were neck-and-neck as the largest party. Now the PVV is in the lead again with 33 seats against the left-wing party’s 26. Neither the left-wing nor the far-right party has made any significant decline or growth in the polls since the Schoof I Cabinet collapsed.

The CDA remained stable at 22 seats, but the VVD’s decline has solidified the Christian Democrats’ position as third third-largest party and potentially a key player in a new government. If it is up to CDA voters, their party won’t work with the far-right PVV and FvD in a Cabinet. GroenLinks-PvdA is acceptable to 52 percent. Most CDA voters are happy with their party ruling with the ChristenUnie (90 percent), D66 (82 percent), and VVD (81 percent).

As the polls currently stand, the new government will have to span left to right across the political spectrum for a majority. A combination of GroenLinks-PvdA, CDA, VVD, D66, and ChristenUnie would reach 78 of the 150 seats in parliament. A right-wing majority without the CDA is impossible. A combination of PVV, VVD, JA21, BBB, SGP, and FvD would get only 68 seats.