An escalation of the trade war would affect nearly all Dutch sectors, Rabobank warns

An escalation of the trade war would affect almost all Dutch sectors, Rabobank specialists have warned after their latest analysis.

“In our pessimistic scenario, the industrial sector would lose almost three billion euros in added value in two years, with U.S. import tariffs of at least 39 percent on all goods,” Rabobank economist Lize Nauta said. The wholesale sector will likely also feel the direct consequences of the trade war.

“The retail sector, which is more geared towards domestic business, will be indirectly affected if the Dutch consumers start reducing their expenditure. In our escalation scenario, the retail sector would miss out on 1.8 billion euros of added value up to and including 2026,” Nauta added. “And although the catering industry is geared towards the Dutch economy, the trade war would also affect this sector indirectly due to lower economic growth and higher inflation. This negative scenario would lead to a shrinkage in the catering industry of 2 percent in 2026.”

Other sectors like the construction sector and the care sector will be less affected by the trade war, according to Rabobank. “The care sector is expected to grow by 2.5 percent in 2025 but may have to deal with cuts due to disappointing tax income as a result of an escalation in the trade war,” Nauta mentioned

The economists are expecting the U.S. to implement import tariffs for products from Europe after the current 90-day suspension. This would result in a 20 percent tariff on European goods, plus tariffs of 50 percent on steel and aluminum and 25 percent on cars and car parts.

However, the bank is also taking into account the possibility that the impact of the trade war is greater than calculated.