Aging population drives 20% drop in welfare use in Amsterdam
Between 2015 and 2023, the number of Amsterdam households receiving social assistance dropped by nearly 20 percent, from 38,620 to 30,790, reaching the lowest level in a decade, Het Parool reports. This decrease contrasts with a slower decline at the national level and is largely driven by the aging of the city’s welfare population, according to research by Onderzoek & Statistiek (Research & Statistics) commissioned by Amsterdam’s Department of Work, Participation and Income.
In 2015, 10 percent of Amsterdam households qualified for social assistance. By 2023, that share had fallen to 7.5 percent. The primary factor behind this decline is the aging population of welfare recipients. In 2015, 13 percent of primary applicants were over 60 years old; by 2023, that number had risen to 23 percent. Many in this group are now leaving the welfare system as they reach the AOW retirement age, effectively reducing the welfare population.
This shift is particularly notable among first-generation migrants from Suriname, Morocco, and Turkey who arrived in the Netherlands in the 1970s and 1980s and who had long periods of unemployment or exclusion from the labor market. Their gradual exit from social assistance statistics reflects their transition into retirement. Among these groups, households with Dutch or Surinamese backgrounds show relatively frequent outflow, with Surinamese households experiencing this trend for longer. The aging effect is also becoming evident among Turkish and Moroccan households.
The decline in social assistance is happening quietly, without any major political intervention. Employment remains the leading reason people leave welfare, accounting for more than half of all outflows. However, retirement age now accounts for about 10 percent of the outflow, representing hundreds of households annually, a share expected to grow in coming years.
Contrasting the aging population, the inflow of second-generation migrants into social assistance remains relatively low. Meanwhile, recent migrants—status holders from Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq—are increasingly represented among new welfare recipients.
An additional reported point of concern is the rise in households with an “unknown educational level,” which increased from 13 to 20 percent over eight years. Many in this group completed their education abroad but hold diplomas not recognized in the Netherlands. Conversely, the share of welfare recipients with only primary education is declining, partly due to this group reaching retirement.
Young people continue to enter the social assistance system, especially during economic downturns, but generally do not remain long. Those with higher education degrees, such as HBO and WO (higher professional and university education), tend to find jobs or resume schooling quickly. The group that remains in social assistance is largely composed of single individuals with limited education or unknown backgrounds.
Looking ahead, projections suggest the number of households on social assistance in Amsterdam will fall further, reaching approximately 28,000 by 2033. This outlook is attributed to the city’s increasingly educated population and a persistently tight labor market.
However, the challenges within the welfare system remain significant. Those who continue to rely on social assistance often require more intensive support. This group mainly consists of older adults with prolonged detachment from the labor market and newcomers facing language barriers, unrecognized diplomas, and limited social networks.
