Households not leaving gas network can expect significantly higher bills from 2030

Households that continue to use the same amount of gas in the coming years could see their bills increase by up to 400 euros from 2030. That is due to climate policy and the purchase price of gas, but also because more and more people are leaving the gas network and those who remain behind have to cover more of the fixed costs, Trouw reports based on a study CE Delft did for Essent.

According to CE Delft researcher Cor Leguijt, this is the first time that all government policies and recent developments in the Dutch gas market were calculated together to estimate the gas bill in 2030. The researchers made two predictions. In the “favorable” scenario, the gas bill in 2030 will be slightly lower than last year. In the “high” scenario, it will be 400 euros more expensive per year. The average is an increase of around 150 euros with the same use.

But Leguijt expects the actual increase will be around 300 or 400 euros per year. “I get that idea from the climate measures and the gas market.”

Cheaper electricity and more expensive gas are part of the government’s transition plan. It provides an incentive to take sustainability measures like insulation, solar panels, and heat pumps. But Leguijt worries about the group of Dutch people who “do not have the money to make that switch.” He thinks that more attention should be paid to the fact that “stragglers” will end up paying more and more.

For example, between 2023 and 2030, the cost of grid management per household will increase by around 12 percent due to the shrinking group that uses the gas network. Gas-using households may also end up paying for the removal costs of people who switch off of gas.

Energy supplier Essent says it wants to continue supplying affordable gas, but government policy is making that increasingly difficult. Essent is also worried about the group of around 400,000 households who live in “energy poverty” and can’t afford to make their homes more sustainable. “If their gas bill increases by 400 euros per year, they will not be able to get by with taking shorter showers,” Essent CEO Resi Becker said. “They’ll have to turn off the heater in the winter months because otherwise it will be too expensive.”

Becker called it strange that the government provides little insight into the consequences of its policy for the gas bill. “We had this research done, but that should be the government’s job.”

Esent wants the government to do more to make low-income households’ homes more sustainable. According to Becker, the government already knows which households need help thanks to the Emergency Fund for the energy crisis. Use 60 million euros budgeted for fighting energy poverty in 2025 and 2026 for insulating homes, she said. “So that vulnerable households can structurally use less gas. Much more effective than constantly compensating for costs.”