Covid-19 deaths in NL projected to hit 5,800: Univ. Washington model

A total of 5,808 people in the Netherlands will die of Covid-19, according to projections by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). As of Tuesday, the Netherlands confirmed coronavirus death count stood at 2,101, so the country still has a way to go according to the IHME projections.

The projections stretch to August 4th. According to the American scientists' projections, the Netherlands' 5,808th coronavirus related death will happen around May 11th and after that there will be no further deaths until the projections' end in August. The projected peak in daily deaths happened on April 6th with 241 deaths.

By Tuesday Dutch public health institute RIVM had only confirmed a total of 176 deaths for April 5 and 6 combined, but that will likely still increase as patient status reports to the RIVM are sometimes delayed, especially over weekends.

The IHME projects that the number of Covid-19 patients hospitalized in the Netherlands will peak at 7,899 on Friday, April 10th. As the Netherlands has 30,946 hospital beds available, the country should easily be able to handle that.

Beds on intensive care is a different story, however. The number of coronavirus patients in ICU is also expected to peak on April 10th, at 1,920 patients needing intensive care. That is 1,001 ICU beds more than the Netherlands can provide, according to the projections. Though the figures IHME used are not completely up to date.

The number of beds in ICUs in the Netherlands was increased to 2,400 on Sunday, Medical Care Minister Martin van Rijn confirmed earlier this week. That is 1,900 beds for coronavirus patients and 500 for other patients. Based on this, the Netherlands will have 20 too few beds for the projected peak in Covid-19 ICU patients.

IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray stressed the importance of keeping social distancing measures in place for the time being. “It is unequivocally evident that social distancing can, when well implemented and maintained, control the epidemic, leading to declining death rates,” Murray said. “Those nations hit hard early on implemented social distancing orders and may have the worst behind them as they are seeing important progress in reducing their death rates. Each nation’s trajectory will change – and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing or relax other precautions.”