Dutch housing supply to rise, but shortage expected to persist through 2027

The delivery of newly built homes is set to increase significantly over the next two years, following a slightly slower growth last year, according to Taco van Hoek, director of the Economic Institute for Construction (EIB). He expects 80,000 homes to be completed this year and 84,000 next year, which will further expand the overall housing supply.

68,000 new homes were completed in 2025, slightly fewer than the 69,000 delivered in 2024, according to EIB director Taco van Hoek. While more large projects were launched last year, delivery times were longer, pushing many homes to reach the market in 2026 and 2027. Van Hoek expects new home construction to increase again in 2028, before declining slightly by 2030.

The total number of homes is forecast to reach 81,000 in 2026 and 85,000 in 2027. “This could partially address the housing market backlog given expected household growth over the medium term,” Van Hoek said. Still, he warns that the housing market will remain tight. By 2030, the stock is expected to drop to 83,000 homes due to increased demolitions.

The EIB director estimates that new home construction will account for over 23 billion euros in investment this year, rising to more than 25 billion euros in the year ahead.

Despite anticipated growth, the Netherlands is still unlikely to meet its goal of constructing 100,000 homes annually. The housing sector is struggling with limited building land, nitrogen-related restrictions, and a congested electricity network.

The Netherlands continues to struggle with a chronic housing shortage. Market analyses indicate that in 2025, there was a deficit of approximately 395,000 homes, the highest in over a decade. The gap remains as new construction fails to meet the growing demand.

Van Hoek told ANP that the Dutch construction industry will require 94,000 new employees in the next five years, or completing all projects could become a “serious problem,” with delays looming. The Ministry of Defense’s planned staff expansion may further complicate recruitment.

Van Hoek illustrates the problem: “When it’s very busy, you call a contractor, and they say: I can’t come next week, but I could fit you in four months. If demand rises further, the wait stretches to six months.”

Van Hoek says it’s unclear how many projects will be delayed or for how long. The impact on, for instance, new housing construction is also hard to gauge and depends on the choices made by construction firms. “You might have to reorganize work and decide not to accept certain projects, otherwise things could spiral out of control,” he adds.

Construction firms can train lateral entrants themselves, but initially these workers are less productive than experienced staff. Van Hoek notes that this can also contribute to project delays.

Van Hoek warns that the construction industry could face competition from the Ministry of Defense for workers. “The kind of people Defense is recruiting are also in the pool of potential construction employees, putting additional strain on an already tight labor market,” he says.

Experts caution that the housing deficit could grow to roughly 453,000 homes by 2027 unless construction rates are boosted or further measures are implemented.