Dutch heat deaths drop by nearly 40%, but extreme temperatures still kill hundreds
The number of deaths caused by heatwaves in the Netherlands has dropped significantly since 2010, according to newly released data from the Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM). The decline reportedly follows growing awareness of heat-related health risks and the implementation of the Nationaal Hitteplan, a national heat response plan that functions as an early warning system.
Between 2000 and 2009, heat-related deaths in the Netherlands were estimated at 7,000. In the following decade, from 2010 to 2019, that figure fell to 4,300. The evaluation, conducted by the RIVM, compared daily mortality data and temperature records over a 20-year period.
The largest decrease in heat-related mortality occurred among older adults, women, and residents of lower-income neighborhoods. Among people over the age of 90, the risk of dying during heatwaves also declined. However, the total number of deaths in this age group remained steady due to population aging.
The RIVM emphasized that fatalities during heatwaves are not limited to people who were already near death. “There are also healthy people in their 70s and 80s who might otherwise have lived another ten or twenty years,” Werner Hagens, the RIVM’s project leader, told RTL.
“If these deaths were only occurring in people who would have died soon anyway, we should see fewer deaths in the days following a heatwave,” Hagens explained. “But that decline does not appear in the data.”
“Heat is known to be harmful to health, and higher temperatures lead to more deaths,” the report stated. The RIVM began activating the Nationaal Hitteplan in 2010 to help protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves.
While the RIVM sees increased public awareness as a likely factor in the decline, researchers said they cannot definitively attribute the improvement solely to the Nationaal Hitteplan. “Other factors may also play a role,” the report added.
According to the RIVM, major heatwaves in 2003 and 2006—among the longest and most intense on record in the Netherlands—received widespread media coverage and may have contributed to long-term behavioral changes among individuals and institutions.
Despite the overall downward trend, extreme heat continues to pose a serious risk. The most deadly heat event in the 20-year study period occurred in July 2019. On July 25, the national temperature record was shattered when Gilze-Rijen registered 40.7 degrees. That week saw multiple days with temperatures between 37 and 39 degrees.
On July 26, one day after the record-setting heat, the Netherlands recorded 549 deaths. That figure was nearly 150 more than the average 400 daily summer deaths (from May through September). No other summer day between 2000 and 2019 saw more than 500 deaths, according to RIVM researcher Jochem Klompmaker. “This is concerning,” Klompmaker told RTL, “because heat may become much more intense due to climate change.”
Europe is reportedly the fastest-warming continent on Earth, and the combination of climate change and an aging population increases health risks, the RIVM warned. “Measures to reduce health problems caused by heat therefore remain necessary,” the report concluded.
Dutch climate scenarios prepared by KNMI, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, show that the number of tropical days—defined as days when temperatures exceed 30 degrees—could rise sharply. If global greenhouse gas emissions are drastically reduced and the goals of the Paris Agreement are met, the number of tropical days could rise from the current average of five to nine per year by 2100.
However, if emissions continue to increase over the coming decades, the number of tropical days could reach 30 per year, with 40-degree days becoming a nearly annual occurrence.
