Construction of up to 470,000 homes in jeopardy in the Netherlands, experts say

A new guideline published by the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management last month shows the possibility that the construction of hundreds of thousands of residential units could be at risk if developers do not implement a wide range of safety and environmental requirements. The map, which applies a color code to every piece of land in the country, shows where local authorities may need to impose more rules and regulations before construction projects can get off the ground.

Even though there are a wide range of open areas in the Netherlands, many of these zones are also categorized as being at-risk when taking water safety, flooding, subsidence, drinking water availability and access to electricity under consideration. The ministry's map is meant to show where intervention is needed, while the Netherlands is in desperate need of more housing.

“It appears that only 30,000 homes of these 500,000 can be built without drastic measures. It is clear that this map will have consequences for housing construction,” said EIB director Taco van Hoek in an interview with the Telegraaf this weekend. “Housing is becoming even more expensive and scarce.”

The orange areas represent regions where major adaptations are needed, scaling down to green areas which are currently acceptable. One location in an orange area is the proposed Haven-Stad district in Amsterdam, the Telegraaf noted.

The city announced plans in 2017 to build roughly 70,000 residential units in the new western district starting in 2029. The plan was to divide the units where 40 percent of the homes are for social housing, 40 percent at a mid-range price, and the remaining 20 percent for the free market. The plans from the ministry suggest that local authorities will need to implement more restrictions regarding water safety and management before construction should begin on Haven-Stad.

Even though the ministry said the map should be seen as only a piece of advice for local and regional authorities, the maps is really something that could create needless drama despite its "good intentions," said TU Delft Professor Friso de Zeeuw, who also advises on spatial planning.

“At a ministry they think they are solving a problem, but in practice this can actually cause problems. Housing construction becomes even more difficult, because the municipality or developer now has to convince a water board of the usefulness of a housing project and the way in which it will be realized.”

Van Hoek also fears such a map will lead to more regulations in the arena of housing construction. The newspaper noted that the ministry seems to have serious reservations about building along many polders because of a risk of water encroaching on the low-lying areas, despite research from think tank Deltares showing many of these regions in the west are well-protected by flood defenses.

Meanwhile, some nature reserves, like the Veluwe, are designated as green areas on the map, even though construction is already forbidden there.

"It is understandable that you do not want to build in the floodplains, but it is difficult to impose major restrictions on entire areas where there are already many homes. Why shouldn't you build a house now because of climate scenarios that indicate that you may be facing a significant sea level rise in 100 to 150 years? Extremely risk-averse behavior does not lead to socially good outcomes here,” said Van Hoek.