Dutch home prices heading back to record-highs; Up 11% by end 2025: ABN Amro

ABN Amro expects home prices to rise by 6 percent this year and 5 percent next year. That means home prices are quickly rising toward the record level of July 2022. The bank previously expected an increase of 4 percent this year and 3.5 percent next year but adjusted its forecast upward mainly due to higher wages and falling mortgage rates.

The increased first-time buyer exemption and National Mortgage Guarantee also played a role, ABN Amro said.

The bank also announced that the number of home sales in the first two months of the year was 13 percent higher than in the same period a year earlier. That is partly because investors are selling off homes more quickly, because private rental is becoming less attractive due to government measures.

“But all in all, the number of transactions is still very low,” ABN Amro said. Last year, 182,000 existing homes changed ownership, compared to the five-year average of 218,000. The decline was even sharper in newly built homes - 17,000 sold last year, compared to the five-year average of nearly 29,000.

According to ABN Amro, this is due to the small number of building permits being issued and the overcrowded power grid. As a result, only 73,000 homes were built last year, while around 115,000 must be built annually to achieve national targets.

Housing market experts previously warned that outgoing Minister Hugo de Jonge’s plans to regulate rental properties in the private sector will further slow down housing construction. The plans make building homes less profitable for investors, causing the housing shortage to increase further.