More asylum seekers in 2025 than previously estimated

By 2025, more people are expected to apply for asylum than previously assumed. According to the multi-year forecast submitted to the Tweede Kamer by outgoing State Secretary Eric van der Burg (Asylum), an estimated 133,500 shelter places will be needed for them by January 1, 2026. For this year, 97,500 reception places for asylum seekers are still expected, 1,500 more than previously assumed.

The distribution law, which aims to better distribute the reception of asylum seekers among the municipalities, is based on 96,000 places for the next two years. This is, therefore, much less than the new forecast assumes. For the time being, Van der Burg is guided by the capacity stated in the distribution law, and the municipalities are now making plans to implement the task.

The distribution law is much desired by many municipalities and organizations but is also controversial. There is criticism that municipalities could soon be forced to set up reception areas. About half of the municipalities are still refusing to do so.

If the estimate of more than 130,000 next year turns out to be true, the municipalities will have to take in even more people, said the minister. "Unless we manage to do two things: limit the influx and move status holders from the asylum centers to other locations," said van der Burg after the Council of Ministers. He referred to agreements that have been reached in Europe and to new ones that are to come. "But it is now also partly up to the negotiators of the new Cabinet. He can understand that they will not be happy with the increase. "Well, it is what it is. If there is no new Cabinet, then it's up to us. Someone has to solve the problem".

The influx of status holders is important because it frees up space in the regular asylum centers for the new arrivals. By the end of this year, there will probably still be 26,000 people with status in an asylum center. Local authorities are obliged to provide housing for status holders but are lagging behind due to the housing shortage.

The municipalities should provide housing for 18,750 recognized refugees in the first half of 2024. The backlog from last year is 6,400, so there will be 25,000 apartments by July 1, reports Van der Burg. A further 17,000 status holders will be housed in apartments in the second half of this year.