Dutch NATO contribution would double if U.S. leaves, Defense Minister says

If Donald Trump becomes president of the United States again and decides to leave NATO, the Netherlands will have to double its defense spending, outgoing Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren said on Nieuwsuur.

The Netherlands is currently just under the NATO standard of spending 2 percent of its GDP on Defense. “But America is such a big and important ally. Without their support, we’ll have to think about doubling it.”

It is a theoretical scenario, Ollongren stressed, and she does not expect it to happen. But as Trump has threatened to leave NATO multiple times, most recently during a campaign rally last weekend, it is a scenario that NATO member states must consider. “We have realized for some time that we in Europe must do more for our own security, including within NATO, of course. We cannot take that for granted,” Ollongren said on the current affairs program.

This year, 18 of the 31 NATO countries meet the 2 percent standard, compared to only seven last year. The issue is higher on everyone’s list since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

The NATO member states’ Defense Ministers met in Brussels earlier this week, during which the Danish Defense Minister said that Russia could well be able to attack a NATO country within three to five years. Ollongren did not want to put a timeframe on a possible Russian attack but stressed that she did not underestimate the threat from the country.

“Russia has shown that they can covert their war into a war economy, actually faster than most experts expected. The fact is that Russia poses a serious threat,” the Dutch Defense Minister said. A war economy is not determined by the market but focused on production capacity at the service of the war apparatus. Last month, NATO Admiral Rob Bauer said that member states need to think in that direction.

Ollongren does not think that is unreasonable. The Netherlands must mentally prepare for a situation “in which we will demand a lot from society.” She mentioned more people needed for the armed forces and spending more tax money on Defense. “But we also need companies, for example, to help with our cyber defense.”

“Our security - the defense of the Netherlands and the alliance - that is, of course, a military matter. But it concerns us all,” Ollongren said. “We must have all chains in order. If a large supply of troops and equipment is needed in our ports, this will have to be done by rail or road. There is a lot involved. So it is not something you can think of: Defense will arrange everything. We must all do our part.”