Netherlands will likely miss NATO defense spending targets again

The Netherlands will likely miss the NATO standard for defense spending again. The Cabinet promised to reach the target of spending at least 2 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) on Defense in 2024. But the latest forecast from July shows Defense spending won’t top 1.96 percent next year. The target is also uncertain for 2025, 2026, and 2027, De Telegraaf reports.

In 2024, the Netherlands will fall about 400 million euros short of the 2 percent target. In 2025, it will be about 200 million euros; in 2026, about 700 million euros; and in 2027, about 1.3 billion euros.

According to a spokesperson for caretaker Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren, the Netherlands may miss the target due to “economic growth and cash shifts.” Because the Dutch economy is growing, GDP is increasing. If defense spending doesn’t rise in line with the GDP, the percentage spent on the armed forces drops.

The Netherlands will “almost” meet the NATO standard in 2024, 2025, and 2026, the spokesperson said, calling the standard a starting point. “You cannot add money every time the economy grows. There is some wiggle room there.”

The coalition parties seem divided about the fact that the Cabinet is missing the NATO targets again. “The NATO standard of 2 percent is a must,” CDA MP Harmen Krul told the Telegraaf. “If we really take the situation in our continent seriously, that must also mean that we must keep to agreements. So money has to be found.”

The Netherlands must “take the NATO standard seriously,” D66 parliamentarian Alexander Hammelburg said. “We have to shake off the naivety of the past decades.”

The VVD is less concerned. “I am realistic about this. I knew this could happen if the economy is doing well,” MP Peter Valstar told the newspaper. He called it a “symbolic pity” that the NATO standard may not be met. “But a percentage of 1.96 percent can also be rounded up. However, the next government mustn’t be satisfied with that.”

The Netherlands has been under fire in NATO for years for not spending the agreed-upon 2 percent of the GDP on Defense. At a summit in Lithuania last month, the NATO countries agreed that the 2 percent standard would be the absolute minimum for defense spending from next year. After the summit, Minister Ollongren called the 2 percent standard “a hard lower limit.”