Netherlands expecting 70,000 asylum seekers this year, 25% more than predicted

The Cabinet is expecting more than 70,000 asylum seekers to come to the Netherlands this year, not including Ukrainian refugees. That is more than a quarter higher than what the Cabinet predicted last autumn to be the absolute maximum. The Cabinet is also expecting that the number of unaccompanied minor asylum seekers will increase by more than a quarter. Previously, the arrival of about 7,500 unaccompanied children was assumed. This number has now been revised upwards to approximately 9,600, according to an updated prognosis that Asylum Affairs State Secretary Eric van der Burg sent to the Tweede Kamer on Friday.

The forecast is the Long-Term Production Prognose (MPP), a semi-annual report which charts how many asylum seekers are expected in the Netherlands. In the previous MPP released six months ago, a maximum of 42,000 asylum seekers in 2023 was assumed.

If policy remains unchanged, the government assumes a further increase in the number of asylum seekers in the coming years. For 2024, this concerns an increase of a maximum of 72,000 asylum seekers. In 2025, that number will rise to more than 76,000.

Ukrainian refugees are not included in these figures. The state secretary also expects that the number of Ukrainians fleeing to the Netherlands will increase in the near future. The Netherlands now takes in around 90,000 Ukrainian refugees.

Asylum influx rising due to unrest, and can rise higher without implementing new policy

Partly due to the "unrest in the world, including in Syria, Yemen and Afghanistan,” the number of asylum seekers is rising, Van der Burg said in an explanation of the Cabinet’s forecast on Friday. The effects that the recent earthquakes in Turkey and Syria had on immigration to the Netherlands, and the latest violence in Sudan, are not included in the latest forecast.

The government wants to take measures to reduce the number of asylum seekers. Measures to limit the influx are being taken with other European Union Member States. For example, there are plans to guard Europe's external borders more firmly. People who are not entitled to asylum must also be returned to their home countries more quickly.

The government also wants to reduce the number of asylum seekers that are allowed to stay in the Netherlands by bringing the assessment of applications more in line with other EU countries. The Netherlands generally grants more asylum applications than other member states. In this way, the government wants to prevent the Netherlands from becoming unnecessarily attractive as a destination for asylum seekers.

Tens of thousands of reception places needed

As a result of Van der Burg’s estimate, the Central Agency for the Reception of Asylum Seekers (COA) now needs another 77,100 reception places by 2024, where the previous estimate was 75,500. The required number will increase sharply again by 2025. It is then expected that more than 97,000 reception places will be needed by then. At the beginning of this month, 53,000 asylum seekers were housed in COA reception locations and crisis emergency reception locations of municipalities.

In the second half of this year, municipalities must house more than 27,300 people who are expected to be granted residency rights to remain in the Netherlands after applying for asylum. This is the highest target for municipalities since 2015.

There are now 16,000 people in COA asylum seekers centers "who should actually be in a home," Van der Burg said. He was referring to those with residency status who have not been transitioned to a more permanent home.

Van der Burg is worried, he admitted. "We now have 50,000 places, but many of them are temporary." This concerns both the emergency shelters offered by municipalities and the COA’s centers for asylum seekers. Various contracts that the COA has with municipalities for reception facilities are about to expire. "If you then have to grow to 77,000, you know that I won't be bored in the near future."

VNG, the association representing Dutch municipalities, is also very concerned about the feasibility of the total number of places needed for asylum reception this year. Municipalities are basically being asked to realize at least 170,000 reception places, when including facilities for Ukrainian refugees, while the government still does not have asylum matters in order, the VNG said. For example, so far there are still no guarantee that the municipalities will be compensated for all the extra costs that care entails.

National government still unable to force municipalities to help with asylum crisis

Around the summer it will be tense again at the application center for asylum seekers in Ter Apel Van der Burg conceded. To prevent asylum seekers from having to sleep in the grass there, just like last year, other municipalities will be called upon in the event that the influx of asylum seekers is unmanageably high. "I told the Board that if things go wrong again, the reception will not be arranged again in Ter Apel," Van der Burg said on Friday.

"Then we will have to do it somewhere else in the Netherlands. If we fail to arrange enough places together, there is an emphatic risk that people in the Netherlands will end up living on the street. We must prevent that", emphasized Van der Burg.

However, the State Secretary does not yet have any instruments to force municipalities to take in more, or even any, asylum seekers. The distribution law in which this possibility is regulated is not yet in place. "My main instrument is my mouth and that hoarse voice of mine," said Van der Burg. For months he has been trying to persuade municipalities to take in asylum seekers.

The VNG and also the Security Council, made up of 25 mayors who chair one of the country’s security regions, are disappointed by delays to the law regarding the fair distribution of asylum seekers in different regions of the Netherlands. With this law, the government can, if necessary, force municipalities to make room for asylum reception. "At the moment there is still no solid legal framework for the fair distribution of reception across all municipalities," said the VNG. It is known that a large number of municipalities have not provided any reception services at all, or only want to house certain groups of asylum seekers, like women and children or people from certain parts of the world.

The VNG also pointed out that broad support for the municipalities is still not in order. For example, in the field of education, medical care and psychosocial support for residents of reception centers. "Better management from the government is needed. Municipalities must know where they stand in good time," according to the association.

Immigration office can’t keep up

Additionally, it is not possible for the Immigration and Naturalization Service (IND) to keep track of the number of asylum applications, the office said in response to the expected influx. The expectation of over 70,000 asylum applicants is a figure that is “three times higher than what the IND is set up for," the immigration authority said.

Due to the higher than expected influx, the waiting time for processing applications will also increase. "The waiting time will be longer in the near future. The number of cases that cannot be decided within the extended statutory period of 15 months is expected to increase," the IND said in a written response. According to the IND, the number of applications is already higher than what the organization can process.

Also, the IND cannot keep up with the increasing number of applications merely by expanding the organization. The organization said this was “not feasible," although the IND "has been investing for a long time in attracting and training new employees," IND said.

"Accelerating cannot be infinite," writes IND Director-General Rhodia Maas. "We are adjusting our procedures regarding part of our work, so that there is an answer for the applicant in a shorter period of time. But, however bad that may be for the people involved, we also have to accept that applicants will have to wait a long time for the time being," Maas wrote.

In order to provide clarity to a large group of asylum seekers in the short term, the IND wants to handle the application process of 18,000 Syrians and Yemenis more efficiently. "This is possible because many of the applications are eligible for approval," said the organization. Carefulness will not be compromised, the service promised.

The IND also wants to make a faster decision for a number of nationalities "where the chance of approval is actually low," such as for applications from Algerians and Moldovans. This approach makes more experienced hearing and decision-making assistants available for more complex cases.