Climate measures to make return flights within Europe some €60 more expensive: ABN Amro

New environmental measures will make flying within the European Union much more expensive, according to calculations by ABN Amro. The expiry of free emission allowances, combined with higher flight tax, will increase the price of a return flight to Barcelona, Rome, or Athens, for example, by 50 to 60 euros, Het Parool reports.

Like other polluters, airlines have had to hold emission rights in order to emit CO2 since 2005. Until now, the vast majority of those allowances were free. But that will be phased out from 2024, and in 2027 airlines will have to pay for all their emission allowances. The EU is simultaneously also reducing the number of emission allowances by 4.4 percent annually, so they will become more expensive.

According to ABN Amro, the expiry of free emission allowances alone will make a return flight to Barcelona or Rome approximately 24 euros more expensive in the coming years. A flight to Lisbon will be almost 30 euros more expensive and to Athens 34 euros. Add to that the increased flight tax, and you’re looking at price increases of 50 to 60 euros.

The actual prices may be even higher from 2026. “Our calculation is based on the current price of an emission allowance,” ABN Amro economist Stef Driessen said to the newspaper. “Last year, one such allowance was still between 85 and 100 euros. But that will increase considerably in the coming years. It is difficult to predict to what amount. That depends on supply and demand.”

The bank also didn’t include the consequences of other measures taken in aviation in its calculation. For example, the government plans to shrink Schiphol this year, allowing fewer flight movements. That will likely also increase prices.

A side effect of the European emission measures is that flights to countries outside the EU will become more popular. The EU emissions trading only applies to flights between European airports, after all.

“Flying to countries that do not participate in the European emissions trading system will become more attractive,” Driessen said. “This is the end of the line for cheap airline tickets within Europe. Is that very unfair? Not really. Aviation has been favored for many years. For example, there is no excise duty and VAT on kerosene, while those who go on holiday by car spend quite a bit of fuel money on VAT and excise duty.”