Covid autumn wave likely over: Hospital total below 850; Infections at 6-month low

Hospitals in the Netherlands were treating 849 people with Covid-19 on Tuesday afternoon, according to the LCPS. The patient total fell by 16 percent over the course of a week, falling to its lowest level since 3 October. The number of new coronavirus infections reported to the RIVM also fell closer to its lowest mark in a half-year.

"The decline that we have been seeing for a while continues. We can say that the autumn wave has come to an end," the RIVM said.

The current Covid-19 patient total included 33 patients in intensive care units, and 816 more in regular care wards. Hospitals admitted an average of 94 coronavirus-positive patients each of the past seven days, including four sent directly to intensive care. The previous week, hospitals admitted 124 patients on average, with ten sent straight to the ICU. That reflects a one-fourth reduction in total hospital admissions, including a 60 percent decrease in intensive care admissions.

The LCPS, which monitors hospital crowding and resource levels, counts all patients who test positive for the coronavirus regardless of the severity of their symptoms. Since these patients are isolated from others, it causes more strain on hospital resources. The Dutch public health institute, RIVM, uses data from Stichting NICE, which in the past counted those who were being treated for the coronavirus disease.

Last calendar week, NICE counted 426 new hospital admissions, which also reflects a similar 26 percent reduction. That includes 33 patients sent to an intensive care unit, down from 53 the week before.

Meanwhile, the RIVM learned of 7,719 people who tested positive for the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus during the seven-day period ending on Tuesday morning. That reflected a sharp 37 percent fall in the number of weekly infections. The current tally was the lowest total announced by the RIVM in an official weekly report since the end of May. The figures only show official tests, and not results from self-test kits.

However, there was also a corresponding decline in people who reported symptoms of Covid-19. The RIVM said that its weekly survey showed that 4.0 percent of respondents had symptoms of the coronavirus disease, down from 4.4 percent the previous calendar week, and 5.0 percent the week before that. Similarly, the amount of coronavirus particles in waste water has continued to fall, showing a 26 percent drop during the last week of October.

The basic reproduction (R) value also fell from 0.82 to 0.79 on 25 October, indicating that 100 people contagious with the coronavirus likely infected 79 others. They then passed it on to 62 people, who infected another 49. When the R-value is below 1.00, it suggests a continued likelihood that the number of weekly infections will continue to fall.