Home sales fall by a third as price jumps 14 percent; Overbidding falls

The Dutch housing market is still very overheated. In the first quarter of this year, home prices rose 14 percent while sales fell by more than a third compared to the same period last year, according to research by data specialist Matrixian Group. But there is a small bring spot - overbidding decreased slightly in the first quarter, Matrixian Group said in a press release.

In the first quarter of this year, the average selling price for a home was 446,913 euros - 14 percent more than the first quarter of last year and 4 percent higher than the previous quarter. Four Dutch municipalities saw their average selling price increase by more than half compared to the same quarter last year: Gulpen-Wittem (+55 percent), Eemnes (+54 percent), De Ronde Venen (+53 percent), and Texel (+51 percent).

A total of 27,662 homes changed hands in the first three months of 2022, a decrease of 34 percent compared to the same period last year and minus 12 percent compared to the previous quarter. In addition to increasing prices, this is also due to the decline in "suitable" supply, Matrixian Group CEO Luke Liplijn said. The mismatch between supply and demand is increasingly dramatic, he said.

But there is a small ray of hope. Overbidding decreased for the first time in a long time when looked at the average overbid as a percentage of the asking price. In the first quarter of this year, buyers paid an average of 9.23 percent above the asking price, compared to 9.39 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021.

"Although 0.16 percent is a modest decrease, we are now two months further in which a lot has happened," Liplijn said. "Interest rates increased, energy prices rose, and there were rising fears of a possible recession. Together with inflation and the lag in the wage indexation, this is further depressing consumer confidence, which was already at its lowest level ever recorded in April."

"It is therefore very likely that the decreased percentage of overbids will continue and that we have passed the tipping point of an overheated housing market," Liplijn said.