Ukraine war overshadowing municipal elections; Lower turnout expected

The war in Ukraine seems to be overshadowing the municipal elections in the Netherlands next week, I&O Research found in its final poll for the election. As a result, the turnout for the election will likely be lower than in 2018.

Only 41 percent of voters follow municipal politics in the run-up to the election, while almost 90 percent said they're following developments in Ukraine.

Finance Minister Sigrid Kaag said she hoped people would exercise their right and cast a ballot next week. "Voting is a democratic right," she said after the Council of Ministers meeting on Friday. “You can vote from Monday the 14th up to and including Wednesday the 16th of March.”

In 2018, 71 percent of voters said they would "definitely" vote in the municipal election. The turnout for the previous municipal election was 55 percent. This year 64 percent of voters said they would "definitely" cast their vote next week. "This is likely also a significant overestimation. The turnout will probably be around 50 percent," I&O said. 

Local parties combined will likely again get the most votes this year. In 2018, 29 percent of voters voted for a local party. Now 35 percent say they'll do so. The popularity of local parties has grown enormously over the years. In 1990, they collectively only got 13 percent of the votes.

The VVD will likely again come out as the largest of the national parties. The CDA seems to be losing some ground, according to the researchers.