Netherlands to be more diverse in 2050

In the coming three decades, the Dutch population will grow more diverse. The share of Netherlands residents with at least one parent born in another country will grow to between 30 and 40 percent of the population by 2050, according to research by the Dutch Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) and Statistics Netherlands (CBS).

At the start of 2020, the Netherlands counted 17.4 million residents. Over 4 million of them have at least one parent born outside the Netherlands, a share of 24 percent of the population. The other 13.2 million Netherlands residents have both parents born in the Netherlands. 

CBS and NIDI calculated seven different scenarios, looking at different birth rates, life expectancies and immigration and emigration scenarios. According to the researchers, the Dutch population will consist of between 17.1 million and 21.6 million people in 2050. The number of residents with a Dutch-only background will amount to between 11.2 million and 13.4 million people, depending on how birth rates and life expectancy develops. 

The number of Netherlands residents with at least one parent born in another country will increase by between 16 thousand per year to over 5 million and 93 thousand per year to over 8 million people by 2050. Or to between 30 and 40 percent of the total population, according to the researchers. 

The composition of Netherlands residents with a diverse background will also change, according to the researchers. Currently 60 percent of Dutch with at least one parent born outside the Netherlands "have roots in the western EU member states or in the traditional immigration countries (Indonesia, Suriname, the former Dutch Antilles, Turkey and Morocco", CBS said.

This will change over the coming 30 years as the European Union grows, due to an increase in migrant workers and foreign students from Latin America and Asia, and becuase of "the higher influx of asylum migrants from the Middle East and Africa". The researchers therefore expect that in 2050, less than half of Dutch with a diverse background will have roots in the EU member states or one of the "traditional immigration countries".