Turkey row had no immediate impact on Dutch election polling

Posters for the Netherlands' parliamentary elections, March 2017
Posters for the Netherlands' parliamentary elections, March 2017Photo: Zachary Newmark / NL Times

The diplomatic crisis between the Netherlands and Turkey had no immediate impact on the political polls one day before the Dutch parliamentary election. The latest Peilingwijzer does show an increase in support for the two leading parties in the polls, the VVD and PVV, but the increase was very minor.

The VVD currently stands at between 24 and 28 seats on Peilingwijzer, which combines the data of six different political polls for a more rounded view. The PVV stands at between 20 and 24 seats. Despite the slight increase in support this week, the PVV is still lower on the polls than the anti-Islam party was a few weeks ago.

The various polls in the Netherlands show very different pictures, Tom Louwerse, political scientist and creator of Peilingwijzer, said to broadcaster NOS. One poll shows increased support for the VVD and PVV, another shows no change at all. "The different messages mean that we can not draw any conclusions about the effect of the Turkey crisis", Louwerse said "If the events affect the voting behavior, it seems modest at this stage."

For the other parties, the latest Peilingwijzer mainly confirmed trends seen over the past weeks. Support continued to fall for 50Plus and the PvdA. The PvdA now stands at 10 to 12 seats, which would mean a record decline of up to 27 seats compared to the 2012 elections. SP, CDA, D66 and GroenLinks show the most substantial gains. DENK also saw some rising support.

The CDA and D66 are still the 3rd and 4th largest parties in the polls with between 18 and 20 and between 17 and 19 respectively. GroenLinks follows with between 16 and 18. SP saw a slight increase in support over the past weeks and now stands at 14 to 16 seats.