Population growth stagnant and aging continues
The growth of the Dutch population is slowly coming to an end and the aging population will continue. Migration and life expectancy are however uncertain factors.These statements are part of a handful of national trends described by the Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) in collaboration with the Central Planning Bureau (CPB). The findings are contained in the publication Prosperity and Environment - Horizon Scan.
The PBL believes that the number of older single households will increase, which means that more homes are needed. The labor force is shrinking and at the same time aging rapidly.
Whether the labor productivity of workers will keep growing at the same extent is not clear to the researchers. Incidentally The Netherlands had 16,815,238 inhabitants on Thursday.
The market for offices and shops is a problem child and will show long-term surpluses. When it comes to transportation, PBL does not consider the electric car a real alternative to the competitors, driving on petrol, diesel or gas.
Aviation and shipping will grow significantly. Schiphol airport will have competition from airports in the Middle East, because flight routes tend to adjust to the global economy.
The researchers also looked across the border. The focus of the economy is shifting towards emerging countries. The Western countries will see the importance of their position reduced. The power of Europe on the world stage, it says in the report, will decrease.
It will, however, remain a relatively prosperous continent and still attract migrants. Cities will experience significant growth, but the urbanization will outside the western world will be the strongest by far.